Controversial 28 point plan It was abruptly dropped on Ukraine by the Trump administration as a “take it all or leave it” proposition just a few days ago, and was mostly the result of several weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations between Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev that excluded not only Ukraine and its allies but even some key U.S. officials.
Facing a deadline for the Thanksgiving holiday, European officials are racing to give Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky more time with their counterproposal on how to end the war that will be presented to US officials on Sunday in Switzerland.
This reconstruction of how the ultimatum came about and who was really behind it is based on conversations with several people familiar with the deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
Read more: Ukraine is seeking a NATO-like shield from the United States, according to the counter-plan
For the Europeans, the alarm was sounded when a new player appeared on the scene: US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a close friend of J.D. Vance dating back to his days at Yale Law School. He was the one who informed their ambassadors and Ukrainian officials in an urgent tone that US President Donald Trump’s patience had run out, that Ukraine was in a bad situation, and that Kiev must agree to cede territory.
The fact that he was a close figure to the vice president charged with pushing the plan during a trip to Kiev last week was telling. It was a heavy task usually undertaken by high-ranking diplomats, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio or other foreign diplomats. Vance and Rubio had different views on how the war should end, with Vance taking a more isolationist bent and Rubio more wary of manipulating Russia.
Read more: Vance and Rubio provide evidence of Trump’s emerging foreign policy
Before European leaders and Zelensky jumped into action, they needed to try to understand who was most responsible for this framework. They were completely left out and it was not clear who had the most influence on Trump on the issue.
As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk clearly quipped about S: “Before we begin our work, it would be useful to know for sure who the author of the plan was and where it was drawn up.”
The picture that emerged was that Witkoff and Dmitriev drafted the plan during an October meeting in Miami that included Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who worked with Witkoff on the draft resolution. Peace agreement between Israel and GazaAccording to those familiar with the matter.
Rubio wasn’t fully shaved until late. Trump also found out at the last minute, but blessed him once he was informed. The White House did not immediately respond to messages left for comment.
The deal would hand him victory at a time when he faces a domestic political stagnation, with Democrats bombing his party in early elections in November, raising the possibility of bruising results for next year’s midterm elections. The previously Republican-led Congress is also going against his wishes to release files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, with whom Trump once had an affair before they split.
In addition, the US President has taken an increasingly aggressive stance in the Caribbean and is considering a possible strike against Venezuela.
Meanwhile, Zelensky is facing a corruption scandal that threatens to sink his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. So he feels the heat at home too.
For Trump, what matters is reaching an agreement, not the fine details. But for Ukrainians, the devil is in the details. Their fears that Russia had drafted large parts of the document without their knowledge were proven true. The document still bears the marks of a direct translation from Russian, with strangely worded sentences.
These measures would force Ukraine to cede large areas of territory, reduce the size of its army, and prevent it from joining NATO. The plan would also re-establish economic ties between Russia and the United States, the world’s largest economy.
In an attempt to correct course, Ukraine and its European allies will insist that discussions with Russia on any territorial exchange can only take place once the war along the current line of contact stops. They also want to reach a security agreement that reflects the mutual defense clause in NATO’s Article V, among other measures.
Read more: Staub of Finland and Meloni of Italy spoke to Trump about Ukraine
Efforts to reach a solution have gone through fits and starts since Trump returned to the White House in January, when he pledged to stop the fighting within days.
The current episode is no less dramatic than previous episodes that saw Zelensky berated by Vance and Trump in an Oval Office meeting. At the time, European leaders rushed to the White House following a hastily convened summit with Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Their suspicions were that Putin had an uncanny control over Trump. The malicious smile that the Russian president gave in the back seat of the “Monster” car did little to comfort them.
When Trump suddenly announced in October that he was ready to hold a second summit with Putin, this time in Budapest, it seemed like a repeat of the summer. However, this time, the Europeans were grateful to have Rubio on their side. The meeting was canceled after a senior US official made a phone call to his Russian counterpart and realized that the Russians were not budging on their requests.
What they didn’t know was that in the background, Witkoff was formulating a 28-point plan. They believe Rubio has replaced the special envoy and real estate mogul as the main US interlocutor on Ukraine.
US Senator Mike Rounds, a Republican from South Dakota, said that Rubio – while on his way to Geneva – told him and US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat from New Hampshire, that the 28-point plan was a Russian proposal and that it was “not our recommendation. It is not our peace plan.”
Read more: Ukraine talks take center stage as G20 summit concludes: TOPLive
Rubio later wrote on X that the peace proposal was authored by the United States and that it provided a strong framework for negotiations. But his choice of words was cautious: “It depends on input from the Russian side. But it also depends on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.”
He traveled to Geneva for the talks on Sunday, joining Witkopf and Driscoll. Ukraine is represented by Yermak. It is not clear whether the Americans want to see the Europeans with the Ukrainians.
Driscoll was in constant contact with Witkopf and Vance as he became the new interface with European officials. Before last week, his public comments on Russia and Ukraine were based largely on his calls for technological reform in the U.S. military, based on how both countries have deployed drones on the battlefield.
Vance’s deputy national security adviser, Andy Pecker, was also heavily involved, the people said, in another sign of Vance’s influence.
In the face of rejection, Trump was not angry. He told NBC on Saturday that the proposal was “not my last offer,” suggesting that contrary to what Driscoll said behind closed doors, there may have been room to maneuver.
However, his mood worsened on Sunday.
He added that the Ukrainian leadership “expressed its lack of gratitude for the efforts we made.” He said In a post on social media.
Much will depend on how the talks in Switzerland go, and in which direction the American planes will head: back home or east, toward Moscow.
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