Resistance Wall At $112K Blocks Recovery To $122K

Bitcoin weekly price forecast

The bears were out in full force again last week, with Bitcoin rising to last week’s lows of around $105,000 to $103,000 and changing hands. We once again saw a good bounce from the support area there, but so far the bounce has been weaker than what we saw the previous week. The bulls are back again and it looks like they will remain weak for the foreseeable future. Last week gave us a closing price of $108,717, which is solidly below the 21 EMA support level we had hoped to hold, providing further convincing of the overall bearish bias.

Key support and resistance levels now

The upper resistance now looks very massive on the chart. We have a resistance wall above the price now, with resistance levels located at $112,200, $115,500, and then $117,600 at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Even if the price manages to rise above all these levels, we still have to close convincingly above $122,000 in order to shift the bias back towards the bulls and look for higher prices.

At the low end, we got all the strength we could hope for from the $105,000 to $102,000 support area, so if the price goes back to the lows there, we should expect that area to fail. Strong support is located near $96,000 below, with the 55 EMA at $98,000. At this point, we should expect to see the price moving lower to try to test these lower support levels. A close below $96,000 opens a range of lower targets and puts an end to the bull market.

Forecast for this week

We are once again seeing an expected bounce from Friday’s low to Sunday night. It will be difficult to close the day above the first resistance level of the week at $112,200, and the price will likely need to test it more than once to have a chance of breaking it. There is a bit of “hope” support at the $106,900 level, so if the price breaks and comes back down early this week, we could look for this level to hold to give the bulls some hope. However, a close of a day or two below this level represents a great call for prices below $100,000 and down to the $96,000 support.

Market mood: Bearish – We have just completed two big red weekly candles in a row with heavy selling volume in both weeks. The bears are securely in control and may just be starting the downtrend here.

The next few weeks
On the bright side, the expanding wedge pattern has not broken down yet. Dare I say, we could even hit $96,000 and come back and still be inside the structure. So we cannot definitively say that the long-term top exists until the price breaks this expanding wedge pattern. The bulls will need a lot of help to get back on track here, and anything less than a 50 basis point cut at the FOMC meeting on October 29 will likely trigger more downside in the next few weeks. Bitcoin bulls will be begging Powell and company to throw them a bone here and give the markets a big interest rate cut to give them a chance to resume the long-term uptrend.

Terminology guide:

Bulls/bullish: Buyers or investors expect the price to rise.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expect the price to fall.

Support or support level: The level at which the price of an asset should remain, at least initially. The more it touches support, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: In exchange for support. The level at which the price is likely to reject, at least initially. The more touches there are on resistance, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price in check.

Either: Exponential moving average. A moving average applies more weight to recent prices than to previous prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions: The proportions depend on what is known as the golden ratio, which is a global ratio related to the cycles of growth and decay in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Widening wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line that acts as resistance and a lower trend line that acts as support. These trend lines must diverge from each other in order to validate the model. This pattern is the result of widening price volatility, which typically results in higher highs and lower lows.