One of the dominant novels in this course was that “this time is different.” With the adoption of institutions to reshape the Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics, many argue that we will not see a kind of exhausted summit that identified previous sessions. Instead, the idea is that smart money and investment funds will reduce fluctuations, which replace the obsession with maturity. But is this really the case?
Feelings pay the markets, even for institutions
Smoothing often rejects tools such as Fear and greed indicator It is very simplified, on the pretext that they cannot get a difference in institutional flows. But deleting feelings ignores a fundamental fact that institutions are still run by people, and people remain vulnerable to the same cognitive and emotional biases that drive market courses, regardless of how deep their pockets!
Although volatility has decreased compared to previous sessions, the transition from $ 15,000 to more than $ 120,000 is far from the landslide. Decally, Bitcoin achieved this without a kind of deep, extended clouds that represent the previous bull markets. The ETF mutation and the tank accumulation of companies have turned into a change of supply dynamics, but the basic feedback ring of greed, fear and speculation is still intact.
Market bubbles are an eternal fact
It is not only Bitcoin vulnerable to rewards, and bubbles were part of the market for several centuries. The prices of assets have increased again and again beyond the basics, which are fed by human behavior. Studies constantly show that stability itself often generates instability, and that quiet periods encourage financial leverage, speculation and prices in the end. Bitcoin followed this rhythm itself. Low fluctuations see see Open attention Climbing, leverage, and speculative stakes are increasing.
Contrary to the belief that “advanced” investors are immune, research from London Economics College indicates the opposite. Vocational capital can accelerate bubbles by late concentration, hunting momentum, and amplifying moves. The 2008 housing crisis and Dot-Com Bust were not retained, but led by institutions.
Etf flows This course provides another strong example. The periods of clear flows of investment funds actually coincided with the local market bottoms. Instead of the timing of the course completely, these flows reveal that “smart funds” are subject to herd and directional behavior after investment, such as retail traders.
Capital flows can ignite the next Bitcoin leap
At the same time, looking at global markets shows how another equivalent capital rotation can ignite. Since January 2024, Gold’s market ceiling has increased by more than $ 10 trillion, from $ 14 million to $ 24T. For Bitcoin, with a maximum extent for the current market about $ 2T, even a small part of this type of flow can have a significant effect thanks to the multiple money. with Nearly 77 % of BTC was held by long -term holdersOnly about 20-25 % of liquid offer easily, which leads to a multiplication of conservative funds of 4X. This means that new flows of $ 500 billion, only 5 % of expansion in the last gold, can translate into an increase of $ 2 trillion in the maximum bitcoin market, which means that prices are more than $ 220,000.
Perhaps the most powerful case for the explosion is that we have already seen bonus pools in this particular session. Since the bottom of 2022, Bitcoin has organized several 60-100 %+ has extended in less than 100 days. The overlapping of these matches provides current price procedures for how the price is $ 180,000-220,000 dollars before the end of the year.
Bitcoin’s equivalent capabilities remain unexpected
The narration that institutional adoption has reduced the reward peaks equivalent to reducing the structure of bitcoin and human psychology. Bubbles are not a retail speculation accident. It is a frequent feature of markets throughout history, and it is often accelerated by advanced capital.
This does not mean certainty, the markets do not work in this way. But rejecting the possibility of a reward summit ignores centuries of market behavior and unique supply mechanics that make Bitcoin one of the most reflexive origins in history. If anything, “this time different” may only mean that the assembly may be larger, faster and more dramatic than most of them expect.
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