The trade war with China has been tough on Nvidia Corp. investors. (NASDAQ: NVDA). In April, shares hit a year-to-date low below $87 per share. Like its fellow Magnificent 7 members, Nvidia has struggled with economic uncertainty around the effects of tariffs, as well as with Chinese AI innovations. Bears saw a bigger decline in Nvidia shares due to downward pressure from the broader market. However, some investors remain optimistic about a sustainable recovery, and that appears to be the case recently. The stock returned to all-time highs as some tariff concerns dissipated, macro data improved, and Nvidia became the first company with a market cap to reach $5 trillion.
-
Nvidia Corp stock continues. (NASDAQ: NVDA) is recovering from its lowest level since the beginning of the year.
-
With AI Darling stock now trading near all-time highs, many are wondering where Nvidia stock could go next.
-
This analysis looks at three scenarios and where Nvidia stock could be in 2030.
-
If you’re thinking about retirement or know someone who is, here are three quick questions that make many Americans realize they could retire earlier than expected. It takes 5 minutes to Learn more here
However, the bearish argument that prevailed on Wall Street early this year is not quite over. While the AI rally may continue, it remains pure speculation, while the reasons for Nvidia’s stock decline in the spring were real. Given challenges such as being effectively banned from entering China, Nvidia may still be at a crossroads at the moment. We don’t know for sure where the stock will go next, but with the data available, we can speculate. This is what we do here.
Will Nvidia continue to lead in AI?
1. Dominance of AI infrastructure: Nvidia controls an estimated 80% of the AI accelerator market through its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem. It is difficult for Nvidia customers to switch to another supplier. This has allowed the company to dominate the industry, with customers returning year after year. As such, it is well positioned to capture growth from the projected 2030 AI chip market worth $400 billion.
2. Data center expansion: Its data center revenue rose from $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023 to more than $35.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Maintaining the lead here will require continued innovation in GPU architecture and power efficiency as AI workloads grow exponentially. So far, Nvidia has managed to do this.
3. Maintain margin: One of the biggest arguments against Nvidia is that it may not be able to maintain its huge margins as competitors catch up and become more attractive to Nvidia customers. This has not happened yet, and Nvidia has maintained its control of the market well. In turn, this allowed the company to achieve industry-leading gross margins of 73% in Q4 FY2025.
Will he reach new heights or will he stumble further?
24/7 Wall Street estimates that Nvidia’s stock price in 2030 will be $491 per share in our bullish case, $265 in our base case, and $38 in our bearish case. This represents an increase of 171.8%, 46.7%, and a decrease of 78.9%, respectively, from current levels. Each of these estimates comes from a specific scenario analysis of Nvidia’s business segments.
The assumptions for our rising case are as follows:
-
Growth of artificial intelligence: Nvidia currently holds about 80% of the AI accelerator market. Analysts expect this dominance to continue through the adoption of Blackwell GPU and CUDA software moat. This could allow data center revenues to grow at a CAGR of 25% to $351 billion by 2030 versus $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Gross margins could remain above 70% due to limited competition in cutting-edge AI training chips.
-
Cars and robots: A 50% CAGR in automotive revenues to $25 billion could be achieved by 2030 if Level 4 autonomy reaches 15% to 20% penetration.
-
programming: CUDA is already a big part of Nvidia’s moat, but this could improve if the AI narrative is successful in the long term. Nvidia will likely convert this to a SaaS model once more developers adopt it.
All things considered, the stock could reach $491, with about $240 billion in net income if all that revenue materializes and margins hold up. Investors would still have to pay a 50x TTM earnings multiple for the stock. The market value will be $12 trillion.
The likelihood of this happening is very low, given the amount of ground Nvidia has to cover.
The assumptions for our base case are as follows:
-
Growth of artificial intelligence: Data center revenues could grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15% to reach more than $230 billion by 2030. If Nvidia maintains a 60% to 65% market share here, it can reach that goal, especially if competitors continue to lag behind.
-
The narrative success of artificial intelligence: The AI story still has to work out for Nvidia to reach our base case price of $241. Otherwise, growth will not occur, and investors will quickly reduce the growth premium to a discounted level.
Nvidia’s base case valuation will be $8.9 trillion. We highly recommend reading this stock price forecast to get a more detailed analysis of our base case.
You may have noticed that there is a big gap between the base case and the bear case. This is mostly because the bear theory assumes that the AI narrative will fail.
If that happens, the result would be disastrous for Nvidia and its stock. The only reason the stock is trading at such a high valuation is because the company is directly linked to artificial intelligence and its prospects. Without it, it will revert to being a gaming GPU company with some links to cryptocurrency mining.
However, this scenario is unlikely. The demand for AI will not disappear overnight. However, what could happen is that the development of artificial intelligence may slow down. As a result, Nvidia will also slow down. It needs constant orders from hyperscale companies and AI startups to maintain its momentum and strong profit margins. If AI slows down and companies are no longer willing to run massive AI models at a loss, they are also unlikely to upgrade their GPUs to anything Nvidia offers. This would crush Nvidia’s margins and turn revenue growth into the red, and investors would no longer pay a growth premium for the stock. $38 for such a scenario is reasonable, if not a bit rich, considering that would still leave Nvidia with a $932 billion valuation.
Regardless, our baseline remains at $241 for 2030.
This is why AI is not a bubble and why Nvidia will reach $10 trillion
You might think retirement is about choosing the best stocks or ETFs, but you’d be wrong. See even large investments can be a drag in retirement. The difference is simple: accumulation versus distribution. This difference is causing millions to rethink their plans.
The good news? After answering three quick questions, many Americans found they could do just that Retirement previously Than expected. If you’re thinking about retirement or know someone who is, take 5 minutes Learn more here.
The post NVDA) Bull, Base, & Bear Price Prediction and Forecast (Nov 21) first appeared on Investorempires.com.
