In the last few days the market Bitcoin It has gone through a period of uncertainty that has left many traders and investors in a state of suspense. October, usually considered a historically strong month for Bitcoin, did not live up to expectations this time. After a brief phase of upward momentum, the price lost its momentum, raising concerns among those who feared they were at the end of the upward cycle that began months ago. However, when looking carefully at the on-chain data, the picture appears less dramatic than it appears at first glance. Some analysts point out that we are not at the end of a bull market, but rather at the end of one Moment of rearrangementThis is the stage of restructuring the market after months of growth.
BTC is not in the “final cyclical phase”: opinion of XWIN Research Japan
According to analysis by XWIN Research Japanpublished on CryptoQuant, said that the current situation of Bitcoin does not correspond to the typical signals of a market top. The indicators do not show generalized euphoria, but rather structural cohesion. the’Open interesti.e. the total open positions on Bitcoin futures, has declined sharply since the end of October. This decline is important because it indicates that many leveraged traders are closing their positions. In other words, the market “vents” speculation, reducing the pressure of high-risk operations.
(Source: Cryptoquant)
In the final stages of a bull cycle, the opposite usually happens: leverage increases as everyone tries to ride the last pump. But this time the dynamic is the opposite – a sign that the market is not in “maximum mania” mode, but rather in a state of technical halt. Another interesting indicator concerns the behavior of institutional investors, especially in the United States. The so-called “Coinbase Premium Index,” which measures the Bitcoin price differential between Coinbase and other global exchanges, has recently turned negative. This means that demand for Bitcoin is weaker in the United States than in the rest of the world. However, XWIN interprets this not as a signal to escape, but as part of an ongoing restructuring: institutions are simply repositioning themselves awaiting a clearer macro environment, especially in light of the next monetary policy decisions.
Positive signs despite the complex stage
Despite appearances, there are positive signs that tell us not to panic. the Bitcoin reserves exist exchange They are at their lowest levels in several years. When Bitcoin disappears from exchanges, it usually means that long-term holders are moving it Private walletsWith the intention of keeping it, not selling it. This behavior, often associated with HODLers, tends to create a solid base under the price. Reduced available supply leads to lower selling pressure, and thus greater stability in the medium term.
In parallel, Liquidity in stablecoins – That is, the capital in USDT, USDC and the like held in wallets and exchanges – grows again. It’s a subtle but crucial signal: it indicates that there is money ready to re-enter the cryptocurrency market. Often, an increase in liquidity in stablecoins leads to the expectation of new buying flows, as they represent “gunpowder” waiting to be converted into digital assets. However, XWIN warns that one should not expect explosive movements in the short term: Bitcoin may remain in one Consolidation stage For weeks or months, it oscillates within a fairly narrow range.
Implications for those who invest in or follow the cryptocurrency market
In this context, many investors wonder what they should do. Leveraged traders will likely remain cautious: volatility may remain low, but sudden price spikes could impact short positions excessively. However, long-term investors can read this phase as an opportunity for gradual accumulation, taking advantage of calm periods to build their positions. It is not a call to buy blindly, but to recognize that the fundamentals… Bitcoin It hasn’t changed: supply is still limited, global demand is growing slowly, and the next halving is approaching.
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