Bitcoin price recently witnessed a significant rise in volatility, which positively impacted its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.
Despite this, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum nearby All-time high levelscombined with increased selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current uptrend may have peaked.
On the other hand, analysts at The Bull Theory have identified key indicators that point to a turnaround in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with the ongoing uptrend potentially extending into 2026.
Bitcoin price peak expected in the second quarter of 2026
In a mail On social media platform This pattern has held true for more than a decade, but recent data indicate a significant change.
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According to their analysis, Bitcoin is moving from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak expected around the second quarter of 2026. This change is due to deeper structural transformations within the global economy.
Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are lengthening, and waves of liquidity move through the financial system at a slower pace.
One of the main factors cited by analysts that influences this lag is when central banks stop tightening their policies Monetary policiesIt usually takes 6-12 months for liquidity to reach the markets.
Easing signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of an end to the balance sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets until early 2026, rather than having an immediate impact.
Additionally, this delay is evident outside the United States and China Money supply The M2 has more than doubled its US counterpart and continues to expand. Historically, when liquidity in China grows more quickly than in the United States, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise after a few months, thus extending the cycle into the first half of 2026.
The new Japanese Prime Minister also launched an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.
On-chain data shows institutional accumulation
This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. spot Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds gradually buy and hold Bitcoin for long periods.
Despite current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains weak, with Google Trends showing much lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This suggests that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and that the retail euphoria – which usually signals the end of market cycles – has not yet been achieved.
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On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, Exchange reserves Near multi-year lows, miners’ selling pressure has waned since the halving event.
While the four-year halving model remains appropriate, analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pace, and extended global cycles. Therefore, the true peak of this uptrend may correspond more closely with the second quarter of 2026 rather than 2025.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The post Key Drivers That May Keep The Bull Run Alive Until Q2 2026 first appeared on Investorempires.com.
