Bitcoin is now stabilizing around the $90,000 level as the market moves into a new and uncertain phase. Sentiment is sharply divided: Some analysts argue that a collapse below $100,000 marks the start of a new bear market, while others believe that Bitcoin is paving the way to break its traditional four-year cycle and rise more strongly than ever in the coming months. This tension reflects the market’s struggle to price in fear, macro pressures, and structural shifts in liquidity.
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According to new data shared by senior analyst Darkvost, more than 6.96 million Bitcoins collected by investors are now exposed to an unrealized loss. This represents the highest level of unrealized loss since January 2024, although the current correction has occurred not yet It surpassed the sharp decline seen earlier in the session. The implication is clear: Much of the supply was accumulated near Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs, making the recent selling pressure particularly emotional and reactive.
Despite this, Bitcoin continues to defend the $90,000 area – a sign that demand is absorbing the intense pressure. Whether this represents the early stage of a bear market or the final flow before a major rebound occurs remains the central question dominating the market.
High unrealized losses indicate the classic “changing hands” phase
Darkvost explains that the spike in unrealized losses reflects a simple but crucial fact: a massive amount of Bitcoin has accumulated near its previous all-time highs, meaning many new buyers are now underwater. This is especially true for short-term holders (STHs), who tend to react quickly to volatility. Its high cost basis – clustered near the tops of the cycle – makes it more vulnerable to panic selling, which is exactly what the market is seeing as Bitcoin hovers near $90,000.
This phenomenon helps explain the intense selling pressure we have seen in recent days. STHs, driven by fear and deteriorating sentiment, have been sending coins to exchanges at a loss, amplifying short-term volatility. But DarkFost points to an important historical pattern: During bull market structures, ever-increasing unrealized losses produce strong buying opportunities.
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These stages often represent a turnaround where weak hands give up and long-term conviction-driven buyers absorb supply. This is the crucial moment in the “changing hands” narrative – where Bitcoin shifts from emotionally motivated participants to strategic shareholders who are the next major move.
BTC Price Analysis: Key Support Tested with Weak Momentum
Bitcoin continues to trade under intense pressure, settling just above the critical $90,000 area after a sharp decline for several weeks. The 3-day chart is showing a decisive breakout below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a loss of momentum in the short and medium term. The price now sits directly at the 200-day moving average – a level that historically acts as a last line of defense during deep corrections in bull cycles.
The recent candles are showing long lower wicks, indicating that buyers are trying to defend this area, but the strength of the bounce remains limited. Trading volume has increased due to bearish moves, confirming that sellers are driving the current structure. This pattern is similar to previous late-cycle tremors, where clusters of high volatility near key moving averages precede a trend reset or further breakdown.
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Structurally, BTC is forming lower highs and lower lows in this time frame – a clear sign of bearish conditions in the short term. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average could accelerate downside momentum and expose pockets of lower liquidity around $85K to $88K.
However, if the bulls can hold the price above $90,000 and reclaim the 100-day moving average in the coming sessions, it could indicate seller exhaustion. Currently, Bitcoin is at a pivotal crossroads, as market sentiment is fragile and the direction depends on how this support area holds up.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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