Bitcoin jumped by about 4% during the past 24 hours in trading Close to $110,000. Short-term traders are watching a break above the $112,200 level for signs of renewed strength, while long-term holders remain largely profitable.
Reports have revealed that the United States and China are easing Tensions It may help risk-off assets like Bitcoin in the near term, adding a geopolitical layer to the price action.
Macro risks could shape the next downturn
According to analyst Willy Wu, the next cryptocurrency bear market could be driven by a classic “business cycle” decline rather than the usual cryptocurrency rhythms.
He noted that two cycles have overlapped so far: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle Half Rhythm and swing in Money supply M2
Wu warned that a true business cycle downturn — the kind we saw in 2001 and 2008 — would be a different test of Bitcoin’s role in the markets.
We had two overlapping 4y courses
Now it was just one; Global liquidity M2
The next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle that people forget → the business cycle
The last business cycle recessions were in 2008 and 2001, before the invention of cryptocurrency markets. pic.twitter.com/inHqQH7zWx
– Willie Wu (@woonomic) October 20, 2025
Historical events provide evidence
The dot-com slump around 2001 sent US stocks down nearly 50% over two years. During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by about 56% as credit froze and GDP declined.
These events happened before cryptocurrencies existed, which is why Woo says cryptocurrencies have yet to be stress-tested by a widespread recession. Based on reports, this concern relates to how liquidity changes and how quickly investors sell riskier holdings.
BTCUSD trading at $107,854 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Liquidity and recession signals
The National Bureau of Economic Research tracks employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales to identify recessions. At present there is no overarching signal that a deep contraction is imminent, although some risks are elevated.
Analysts said trade tariffs are one of the factors that reduced growth in the first half of 2025, and are expected to impact GDP in the first half of 2026. This type of growth slowdown could drain liquidity and put pressure on markets.
$ Bitcoin It reclaimed the $109,000-$110,000 support zone.
The next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher.
As trade tensions between the US and China ease, I think Bitcoin could go higher from here. pic.twitter.com/D8VNses1ix
– Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025
What are traders watching next?
Bitcoin has regained its footing between $109,000 and $110,000, analyst Ted Bellows said, and pointed to the $112,000 level as the next important resistance level.
A clean move above that area could attract more buyers. Conversely, severe pressure on liquidity from the broader recession may force Bitcoin to move like technology stocks have done in previous recessions, rather than like gold.
The real test
Wu said the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash is tight and investors must choose where to put money — not from the usual cryptocurrency players.
He said that this period will reveal who treated Bitcoin as a hedge and who treated it as a high-risk bet, and this outcome will shape institutional behavior and market rules in the future.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Editing process Bitcoinist focuses on providing well-researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We adhere to strict sourcing standards, and every page is carefully reviewed by our team of senior technology experts and experienced editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content to our readers.
The post Forget Bitcoin’s Halving — The ‘Business Cycle’ Is The Real Market Killer: Analyst first appeared on Investorempires.com.
