China just placed its largest order of U.S. soybeans in two years, a sign of improving trade conditions after months of China ignoring U.S. soybean farmers.
The USDA announced this week 792,000 metric tons sold Soybeans to China. This move comes in the wake of a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the end of last month to ease trade tensions, with China committing to resume US soybean orders and purchase 12 million tons of the crop by the end of the year, as well as At least 25 million tons In each of the next three years.
Earlier this month, China purchased 332,000 tons of US soybeans, bringing the total amount so far in November to more than 1 million tons. COFCO, China’s largest state-owned agricultural and food company, has not ordered soybeans from the United States Since May They have not purchased the crop since the start of the harvest season in the United States in 2025.
These new purchases offer hope to American farmers after months of tariff disputes that have discouraged China from buying American soybeans and effectively taken them off the global market. Industry leaders said it’s a good start, but farmers want more assurance of a stable market moving forward.
“We want to trust what we hear,” said Todd Mayne, director of market development for the Illinois Soybean Association. luck.
At the same time, farmers are tired of the uncertainty that has accompanied the Trump administration’s trade policy.
“We are concerned about fluctuations in trade relations,” Mayne continued. “It’s hard for people to make plans — whether it’s for farmers who are planning for next year’s crop, or buyers who are planning to make big investments in equipment or facilities or whatever else you have — as there’s so much uncertainty.”
In 2024, soybeans accounted for about 20% of U.S. “cash crop revenues,” worth about $46.8 billion, according to the USDA. Data. While about a quarter of soybeans have gone to China, retaliatory tariffs as a result of trade disputes with Beijing have hampered the U.S. soybean industry while South American countries have taken market share. Brazil and Argentina replace American farmers, while Brazil replaces them 71% of China’s imports are soybeansAccording to the American Soybean Association. Three decades ago, Brazil represented only 2% of those imports.
New commercial era
Even as relations between the United States and China improve, soybean farmers have reason to be on edge about restoring trade relations. On the one hand, USDA numbers for soybean exports can be skewed and difficult for economists and farmers to interpret. The USDA may not issue updated weekly export summaries for the rest of the year as a result of the shutdown, which has slowed the release of key data. Therefore, farmers and economists rely more heavily on USDA reports of flash sales, or crop purchases that exceed a certain size and warrant their own report.
Not everyone is convinced of China’s commitment either. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in a note earlier this month that China’s data “provided no evidence to support the idea that there would be a significant increase in the country’s purchases to meet the 12 million metric tons commitment for calendar year 2025 as stated by the White House” and that China’s soybean processors had “zero financial incentive” to buy more U.S. supplies because of lower-cost options from South America.
The main one is also skeptical. He said that during Trump’s first term, China and the United States reached a similar agreement to resume soybean trade, but there was… Delay in initial follow-up From China.
The threat of future trade tensions has not completely disappeared. The consequences of reopening tariff disputes between the US and China will mean that Brazil and Argentina will once again have another opportunity to expand their dominance of China’s soybean import market.
“Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and so the real concern was that if we have another trade war, we stimulate a faster expansion in South America, which has long-term implications for us,” said Scott Geralt, chief economist at the American Soybean Association. luck.
However, soybean farmers are not at the mercy of fragile trade relations. Even before the 2025 tariff slate, soybean farmers have made inroads to diversify demand for their crops, including opening “soybean centers of excellence” aimed at providing training and best practices globally to soybean producers, as well as expanding infrastructure to be able to process and distribute more soybeans domestically, according to Mayne. Others have found others Business partners, such as buyers from Southeast Asia To partially offset lost business from China.
“It’s not just going to be, ‘Okay, everything’s better,’ or ‘Everything’s a disaster,’” Mayne said. “It will be somewhere in between moving forward.”
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