In a market update on October 10, technical analyst Nick Patel (@OstiumLabs) argued that Ethereum is approaching a make-or-break zone where the next few sessions could determine whether the advance will resume or a deeper unbundling will take place. With ETH spot price around $4,000, Patel pinned his thesis on a narrow set of retracement and invalidation levels on both ETH/USD and ETH/BTC, emphasizing that lower time frame behavior must be in line with higher time frame structure to keep an upward path open.
Key price levels for Ethereum now
On the ETH/USD weekly chart, Patel He said “The market fell at the August open last week but remained above the previous weekly low and trend line support,” resulting in an inside week that nonetheless closed “marginally below this key pivot.” The pivot is clear: “We want to see this pivot at $4,093 regained immediately and not turn into resistance here on lower time frames, otherwise we can expect another run off the lows towards the 2025 open.”
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If buyers force a recovery, Patel expects last week’s move to remain a quarterly low: “If we reclaim $4,093 here, which I expect, we should have a quarterly low now and I want to see $4,400 turn into support for a move higher to all-time highs and beyond.”
He framed the weekly invalidation at $3,700, warning that a close below would put the yearly open in check as a “final support” for the bullish structure; Failure there risks “a much larger decline to $2,850.” Patel’s base case remained constructive: “Acceptance back above $4,093 next week and then a close above $4,400 for October, leading to new highs up to $5,000 in early November and a very strong month for ETH.”
The ETH/USD daily reading links the high time frame chart to momentum and market structure. Patel noted an “exhaustion of momentum toward the lows” followed by a higher low last week, a formation that must be defended now. He wants to see the sequence reassert itself with a move above the intermediate range and then a later higher low above the weekly pivot: “We definitely want to see this structure protected now and the price forms a higher high above the intermediate range at $4,352 and then another higher low above $4,093 before breaking higher and pushing towards new highs.”
To confirm the impulsive leg, he noted the trend line breaking, the ATH-based VWAP turning to support, and the RSI system turning: “If we get a trend line breakout and the price flips that ATH VWAP to support with the daily RSI above 50, I expect a move to $4,950 very quickly, followed by price discovery in November.” The daily invalidation reflects the weekly logic: If the $4,093 level acts as resistance and the market pushes below $3,700 — and then closes below it — “we would definitely retest the annual open,” in his view.
Ether vs. Bitcoin
Against Bitcoin, Patel asserts that the relative pair has likely hit its lowest level in the fourth quarter. On the weekly chart of ETH/BTC, the price was rejected at trendline resistance, then rebounded to the yearly open and stabilized, closing in “marginal green” while respecting trendline support from the 2025 lows.
“It is my view that the Q4 bottom for the pair has formed here,” he wrote, adding that a retest and break above the bearish limit in early November would pave the way for a measured expansion: “Acceptance above 0.0417 opens way for the next move higher to 0.055.” He placed the weekly invalidation at 0.0319.
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The daily ETH/BTC chart improves those signals to actionable levels. “The price hit this low between 0.0319 and the yearly open before bouncing back strongly and reclaiming 0.036 as support.” Ideally, 0.036 now serves as the starting point; If not, Patel allows for a higher low to form “above 0.0319 before continuing higher.”
A tactical signal would be a nearby bid reversal: “If we can flip 0.0379 as support recaptured here, that would be promising for the view that a trendline breakout is imminent, and then I would expect 0.0417 to be taken out and the price to head higher, with secondary resistance above that at 0.049 before 0.055.” He also identified a confluence range below: “We have a support confluence zone between 0.0293 and 0.0319, so flipping this range into resistance would be extremely bearish for ETH/BTC.”
Taken together, Patel’s October 10 chart is based on three synchronizations: ETH/USD should quickly reclaim and defend $4,093; $4,400 needed to be converted from ceiling to floor to clear the runway to previous elevations and a possible extension of $4,950; ETH/BTC must pass through 0.0379 and then 0.0417 to confirm the expansion of relative strength under any dollar-denominated breakout.
The downside is equally clear: failure to reclaim $4,093, a weekly close below $3,700, and a subsequent loss at the yearly open would validate the risk that Ethereum, in Patel’s words, could “fall back to $2,850.”
At press time, Ethereum was trading at $3,872.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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