After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently falling towards $111,000. This represents a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, raising concerns among market experts who suggest the uptrend may be closer to an end than many investors think.
The end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle in nine days?
On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb took to social media platform
he indicated Peak Cycle Countdown Indicator, which indicates that Bitcoin has reached 99.3% during its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final phase is characterized by “shaking weak hands,” a common pattern observed before the market peak.
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CryptoBirb confirmed that October 24 is a crucial target date, just nine days away, and described the latest collapse as “on schedule.” He also explained that the market is deep in peak territory, with 543 days having passed since the last Bitcoin halving, which exceeds the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.
It also appears that market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with the Fear and Greed Index falling from 71 to 38, indicating a return from fear to euphoria. the RSI The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also fell from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional collapse may create the perfect launching pad for the final wave of euphoria.
However, technical indicators are showing mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI position at 47 indicates a momentum reset.
What the metrics on the chain suggest
Institutional investors have also begun to change their strategies, as evidenced by the recent Bitcoin run Exchange-traded fund (ETF), which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows.
Ethereum ETF outflows have reached $174.9 million, indicating that the smart money is turning a profit before retail investors fear missing out (FOMO). CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior is consistent with the classic shift from distribution to accumulation.
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On-chain metrics reflect a cool market, with net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) falling to 0.522 from 0.556, and market value to realized value (MVRV) falling to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may create the space needed for an exhilarating final attempt.
When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% since the beginning of the month, which is in sharp contrast to its historical average of 19.78%. This poor performance could actually be a Bullish signWhich indicates that a major movement may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month.
In short, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in peak territory and has seen a reset in institutional sentiment and distribution, as well as a weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves correct, this mix could turn out to be a perfect storm for the final boom before ushering in a new winter for cryptocurrencies.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The post Cycle Peak Countdown Signals 99.3% Completion first appeared on Investorempires.com.
