Key notes
- The cryptocurrency market lost almost all of its gains in 2025 after a 20% decline from its peak of $4.4 trillion.
- First red October since 2018, driven by a $19 billion liquidation event.
- Despite the sell-off, leverage and whale activity show market confidence.
After a record start to 2025, the cryptocurrency market has just seen its first October in the red since 2018, erasing almost all of the gains it made this year. At its peak on October 6, the total cryptocurrency market cap reached $4.4 trillion, but the rapid 20% decline since then has left the market barely up 2.5% year to date.
The downturn began with a sudden liquidation of $19 billion of leveraged positions. Bitcoin, which rose as much as 35% earlier in the year following President Donald Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency policies, has since collapsed 8% this week, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2022.
Binance Research: Historic Red October, Not a Broken Market
According to Binance Research’s November report a reportOctober said that Bitcoin
Bitcoin
$99,552
24-hour fluctuations:
3.0%
Market value:
$1.98 T
Vol. 24 hours:
$81.13 billion
Dominance rose to 59.4% last month, while institutional appetite for Ethereum increased
Ethereum
$3220
24-hour fluctuations:
3.9%
Market value:
$387.03 billion
Vol. 24 hours:
$36.04 billion
It remained solid.
Despite a sharp 6.1% decline in total market capitalization, leverage rose again by more than 10% to reach 5.77% by the end of October. “The market isn’t broken. It’s maturing,” analyst Ali Martinez stated.
I just reviewed Binance Research’s November report. Really solid!
– We just experienced our first red October since 2018.
– Leverage rebounded quickly, and sentiment remained strong.
Bitcoin fell by -3.69% and BNB rose by 6%.
– x402 reached more than 720,000 daily transactions,… https://t.co/ud5feG567C pic.twitter.com/eWnVXou7pw– Ali (@ali_charts) November 7, 2025
Interestingly, privacy coins and AI-related blockchain projects have turned bullish amid the recent sell-off. Binance Research observed a 160% increase in Zcash network activity, overtaking Monero for the first time.
Whale movements and ETF flows
Data on the chain Confirms Whales, the 10 largest depositors on the Bitcoin exchange, have been relatively calm. This suggests that the recent volatility may represent the calm before the storm, according to a CryptoQuant contributor.
Bitcoin exchange whale ratio | Source: Cryptoquant
The “whale ratio” remains stable, which means that large holders are waiting for stronger trend signals. Meanwhile, after six straight days of ETF outflows, Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded inflows of $253 million on November 6, showing early signs of stabilization.
What the market needs to revive risk
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. explained that for cryptocurrencies to once again enter the phase of sustained risk, certain sets of factors must align. UST yields need to stabilize, VIX should push towards 14-16, and gold’s bullish momentum should fade.
For the market to return to risk appetite, it needs not just one good piece of news, but a sustained shift in a set of signals across multiple fronts. UST yields should stabilize or decline, giving market confidence. At the same time, the VIX should be compressed to 14-16, credit… pic.twitter.com/OfCHA7ojOh
– Axel
Adler Jr. (@AxelAdlerJr) November 7, 2025
According to the analyst, reducing reliance on safe havens would boost risk assets, such as Bitcoin. They said Bitcoin should defend key support around $100,000 and spot ETF inflows should continue to confirm the bullish return.
Adler Jr. also added that BTC must re-establish its correlation with broader risk assets to enjoy a sustainable rally.
“When 3-4 of these components are met simultaneously for at least one or two sessions without new shocks, this represents an emerging sustained risk,” Adler explained.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to provide accurate and timely information but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify the information yourself and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the world of cryptocurrencies and finance, amassing industry experience having survived both bear and bull markets over the years. Barth is also the author of four self-published books.
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