Buy Bitcoin Now? Not Yet, Says Blackbay Capital President

Bitcoin’s recent decline has not convinced Blackbay Capital’s president, Todd Butterfield, to return to the market. In a new daily chart of BTC/USD on Bitfinex, shared on

Wyckoff analysis predicts a deeper correction in Bitcoin prices

The chart covers the period from May to November 17, 2025 and shows Bitcoin trading at $92,838. Through this period Butterfield maps Wyckoff textbook distribution. The advance into early summer culminates in an overbought (BC) just above $123,000, followed by an automatic reaction (AR) establishing support just above $112,000. The secondary test (ST) revisits the BC region, confirming the white horizontal resistance band drawn around the $123,000 area.

Later, the price exceeds this ceiling slightly in an upward push after distribution (UTAD), before failing back into the range. Under Wyckoff’s logic, this represents the ultimate trap for late buyers and ensures that the big players are spreading the word. Once the UTAD fades, Bitcoin breaks below the AR line in a sign of weakness (SOW), then produces a lower high called the Last Point of Supply (LPSY), where the rally stops below the previous support.

Trend metrics support bearish structure. The 20-day simple moving average is at $103,132.2 and the 50-day simple moving average is at $110,033.9, both of which are sloping down. With the spot price at $92,838, BTC is decisively below both moving averages, consistent with a Wyckoff price reduction phase rather than the start of a new accumulation.

Butterfield also overlaps Fibonacci retracements of the previous uptrend. Two levels are clearly defined: the 0.382 retracement at $95,358.1 and the 0.5 retracement at $101,257.8. Bitcoin is currently below the 0.382 line, a condition he highlighted in his post as reinforcing a non-bullish stance. A small vertical slice between the current price and the 50% level visually highlights how far BTC will need to bounce to test a deeper bounce.

Beneath the price, there are three indicators Wyckoff owns that lead him to decide to stay on the sidelines. The Wyckoff optimism-pessimism line (overall, 5) has been trending steadily lower and now lies near -520.89K, indicating continued net selling throughout the distribution. The Wyckoff Force Index (overall, 10) entered negative territory at around -852.3, reflecting a downward advance supported by heavy volume, particularly in the statement of work and follow-on selling.

The Wyckoff Technometer (Total, 50, 38, 5), plotted as an orange oscillator, repeatedly indicated overbought conditions above the 50 line near previous highs in June, July, August, and October. Today it reads 40.7 – below the overbought zone but still above the oversold range around 38. In a Butterfield framework, the medium-term reading is not considered a low-risk buy zone.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $91,570.

Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com

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