Bitcoin is once again testing investors’ conviction as it struggles to stay above the $110,000 level after last Friday’s sharp correction that led to a major leverage wipeout across the market. After one of the most volatile sessions of the quarter, traders are watching closely to see if Bitcoin can stabilize or if it will show further downward pressure.
According to on-chain data shared by Darkvost, long-term holders (LTHs) continue to exert significant pressure on the market. The Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) – a key metric for tracking profits made – is currently 2.32, showing that this group is selling coins for an average profit of over 130%.
These high profitability levels often coincide with phases in which long-term investors take profits after extended rallies, contributing to selling pressure and short-term weakness. Despite this, Bitcoin’s ability to defend its current range suggests that underlying demand remains resilient.
Long-term bondholders are still making profits, but are showing signs of exhaustion
Analyst Darkvost notes that while the Long-Term Holders’ SOPR (LTH) index currently sits at 2.32, the short-term averages are beginning to decline. The weekly SOPR (7-day moving average) is down at 1.82, and the monthly SOPR (30-day) is at 1.79, both trending lower since the summer. Although this numbers As they remain below the annual average of 2.25, they indicate a gradual cooling in realized profits – a sign that selling pressure may be easing.
This dynamic reflects a critical turning point for the Bitcoin market structure. As long-term holders continue to see profits above 1.0, they sell coins at a profit, effectively limiting momentum and affecting the price recovery. However, the current decline in SOPR averages suggests that this wave of profit-taking may be about to be exhausted. Historically, such declines in realized profit levels have preceded market stabilization and, ultimately, recovery phases.
Darkfost highlights that the current setup closely resembles the October 2024 correction, when Bitcoin’s SOPR bottomed near similar levels before the next big rally. If history holds true, the continued contraction in LTH’s profitability could signal that the worst of the correction is behind us. However, further moderation in SOPR remains key to a full market reset and a return of sustained upward momentum.
Bulls are defending the $110,000 area amid weak momentum
Bitcoin is still hovering around $111,500, showing signs of stabilization after last Friday’s sharp sell-off. The 8-hour chart highlights a fragile recovery structure, as BTC struggles to reclaim key moving averages and momentum fades below the $117,500 resistance, which remains a key supply area.
The 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) moving averages are beginning to converge — a sign of pressure that typically precedes a strong directional move. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the three levels, indicating that sellers are still dominating the medium-term trend. Maintaining more than $110,000 is crucial; A decisive break below could open the door to a retest of the $105,000-$106,000 range, where strong demand was previously evident.
A recovery between $114,000 and $115,000 would be the first sign of strength, which could lead to a push towards the $117,500 barrier. However, trading volume remains weak, meaning traders are cautious as the market digests the recent volatility.
Bitcoin price action indicates a consolidation phase, where buyers and sellers are in temporary equilibrium. If the bulls can protect the $110,000 area and rebuild momentum, Bitcoin may attempt a gradual recovery, but failure to do so risks extending the correction further.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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