Bitcoin Treasuries and the Bitcoin mining sector have become some of the defining narratives of this cycle. From (Micro)Strategy’s $1 billion MSTR balance sheet purchases to the rise of MetaPlanet and the explosive growth of Bitcoin mining companies, institutional and industry adoption has emerged as a strong structural support for the network. But now, after years of near-constant accumulation and market outperformance, the data suggests we’re entering a critical inflection point — one that could determine whether Bitcoin Treasuries and mining stocks continue to lead or begin to lag as the next phase of the cycle unfolds.
Bitcoin treasury accumulation
Our news Bitcoin treasury tracker It provides a daily look at how much Bitcoin major public and private treasury companies own, when they accumulated it, and how their positions have evolved. These vaults now collectively hold more than 1 million Bitcoins, a staggering amount that represents more than 5% of the total circulating supply.
The size of this accumulation has been the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s current cycle strength. However, some of these companies are facing increasing pressure as their stock valuations struggle to keep up with the price of Bitcoin itself.
Valuation pressure across Bitcoin treasuries
(Micro)Strategy / MSTR, the leader in enterprise Bitcoin adoption, remains the most important publicly traded Bitcoin holder. However, recent months have seen its shares perform poorly compared to Bitcoin’s price movement. While Bitcoin consolidated in a broad range, MSTR shares fell more sharply, pushing them higher Net asset value (NAV) premiumthe ratio between its market valuation and the underlying Bitcoin it holds, is closer to parity at 1.0x.
This pressure suggests that investors are increasingly valuing the company in line with its exposure to pure Bitcoin, with little added premium for management execution, forward-looking leverage, or strategic innovation. In the last cycle and earlier this cycle, MSTR traded at a significant premium as markets rewarded its exposure to leverage. The trend towards parity indicates a decline in the desire to speculate and highlights how accurately market psychology in this cycle reflects previous late-stage expansions.
A cycle-defining turn for Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining stocks
The most obvious view comes from the BTCUSD to MSTR ratio, which essentially measures how many shares of MSTR can be purchased with one Bitcoin. At present, the ratio is around 350 shares per Bitcoin, putting it right at a key historical level of support-turned-resistance that has defined price action turning points.
Right now, this chart is in the make or break zone. A sustained move above the 380-400 area could imply renewed Bitcoin dominance and potential underperformance in MSTR. Conversely, a bearish reversal, especially below 330, may indicate that MSTR could reassert itself as a leveraged leader heading into the next phase of a bull market.
Bitcoin mining stocks take the lead
In contrast to the weak performance of treasury companies, Bitcoin miners are on the rise. Over the past six months, Bitcoin itself has risen by approximately 38% Listed mining stocks Marathon Digital (MARA) shares are up 61%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) shares are up 231%, and Hive Digital (HIVE) shares are up a whopping 369%. The WGMI Bitcoin Mining ETF, a composite of major listed mining companies, has outperformed Bitcoin by about 75% since September, underscoring new momentum in the sector.
Focusing on Marathon Digital, the world’s largest publicly traded bitcoin mining company, provides additional insight. Historically, the MARA chart has been a reliable leading indicator of market trends. At the end of the 2022 bear market, for example, the MARA rose more than 50% before Bitcoin entered a new multi-month high. This pattern has happened several times this cycle.
Bitcoin Mining stocks and corporate treasuries: Divergent paths in Bitcoin market leadership
With more than 1 million Bitcoins on corporate balance sheets, the influence of these entities on the balance of Bitcoin supply and demand remains profound. But the balance of leadership seems to be shifting. Although treasuries like Strategy and MetaPlanet are structurally bullish over the long term, they are now sitting at key ratio inflection points, struggling to outperform spot BTC. Meanwhile, miners are experiencing one of the strongest periods of relative performance in years, often a sign that broader market momentum may soon follow.
As always, our goal at Bitcoin Magazine Pro is to cut through the market noise and deliver data-backed insights across every aspect of the Bitcoin ecosystem, from corporate holdings to miner behavior, on-chain supply, and macroeconomic liquidity. Thank you all so much for reading, and I’ll see you in the next article!
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