Bitcoin is Trading is in a fragile state After falling below $90k and now in the mid $80k. This price action has some analysts reacting to the possibility of the next major rally Farther than many would expect.
A recent technical outlook from prominent cryptocurrency analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino adds weight to this concern. for him The analysis focuses on 6-week LMACD Momentum indicator, which just crossed a downtrend for the first time in years.
Related reading
Momentum is turning against Bitcoin in the 6-week LMACD
The technical outlook highlights a strong warning from Severino, who argues that so is Bitcoin Nowhere near the staging This is the kind of explosive recovery that many have been waiting for.
Severino’s message is about momentum, which is what he says Now he pointed forcefully downwards. Momentum is cited using the recent cross on the 6-week LMACD indicator, which is known for its decisive crossovers that confirm longer-term trend changes.
The 6-week LMACD is a lagging signal, meaning that by the time it turns bearish, Bitcoin is already in decline. The chart confirms this with multiple examples: Bitcoin entered extended red phases lasting 812 days, 861 days, and 686 days after previous bearish crossovers.
Because the signal lags the price action, Bitcoin usually bottoms long after the crossover occurs. Severino noted that bear market lows always appear between 250 and 365 days after a bear reversal, not within a few weeks. Therefore, traders who expect a bottom to be reached just 40 days after the new signal ignore how slowly this indicator behaves.
The chart also highlights how risky each pullback becomes when the LMACD indicator fluctuates lower. Previous sessions saw drawdowns of approximately 69% to 75% from the moment the crossover occurred, although Bitcoin had already fallen significantly before the indicator flashed.
Please pay attention to this post if you want to understand why Bitcoin is unlikely to suddenly return to the upside
One word: momentum
The 6-week LMACD has some of the cleanest crossovers that represent pivotal trend change confirmation points. The signal is delayed… pic.twitter.com/mq9uR2Fqec
— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) November 22, 2025
Potentially long road before any major recovery
Although LMACD The signal has just crossed the downtrend, The current crossover remains uncertain for another 15 days, and the similarity with previous cycles must be taken into account.
Severino noted that he does not see the end of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, but he urges traders to do so. Stop expecting a quick uptrend. Past behavior does not guarantee the same results, and there is no certainty that Bitcoin will fall another 70% from here like previous cycles.
Related reading
The 6-week LMACD is a long-time frame signal, and the shifts it captures reflect deep structural trends rather than short-term fluctuations. This means that Bitcoin can still be Months away from the true bottom of the cycle.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,670, down 11% and 23% in the past 37 days respectively. Severino’s analysis means that Bitcoin price may spend a long period hovering around these levels or… Experience further decline Before any meaningful recovery begins a new bullish phase.
Featured image from See The Wild, chart from TradingView
The post Bitcoin Is Highly Unlikely To Spring Back Anytime Soon first appeared on Investorempires.com.
