Bitcoin Gets Sub-$100,000 Target as BTC Price Cancels Weekend Gains

Bitcoin (BTC) starts November with a decline to $107,000 as traders prepare for further retesting of support.

• Bitcoin price action gives bulls a grim sense of a repeat as weekend gains evaporate and bearish liquidity grows.

• November seasonality calls for significant gains in Bitcoin prices, but so far, there is no sign of relief.

• Hopes for a US-China trade deal are buoying stocks, while cryptocurrencies fail to join the party as Fed rate cut nerves return.

• Institutional demand is at a seven-month low compared to the supply of newly mined Bitcoin.

• Retail investors are pulling back into Bitcoin, as data suggests $110,000 prices may be unsustainable due to reduced network activity.

Bitcoin Trader Sees a ‘Tough’ Trading Week.

Bitcoin fell once the daily close was completed, returning to $107,000.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView The BTC/USD pair was shown erasing the entire weekend’s gains after traders warned of a “Sunday pump”.

“In all honesty, this looks like this could be one of the toughest trading weeks of the fourth quarter,” CrypNuevo trader predicted in a thread on X.

“This makes me think we may be in a range-bound environment; therefore, I should be aware of retesting potential range lows.”

CrypNuevo noted that those lows had a key intersection with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $101,150, raising the odds of it being the lower target. The price revisited the zone on Binance during its sudden collapse from all-time highs of $126,200 in October.

He continued: “It is a very strong support, so we will see a very strong bounce from there.”

Others, including trader Daan Crypto Trades, prioritized the liquidity of the exchange’s order book over nearby key price targets.

“Two significant levels of short-term liquidity have accumulated over the weekend range,” he told X followers.

“The price crossed the low of $108.5K. There is still a good range around $112K. Zooming out, the $105K-$106K and $117K levels are worth looking at.”

Trader and analyst Mark Cullen warned that reduced liquidity could be very tempting.

“$BTC looks weak and this low liquidity segment is calling, but will we get one last boost before we see a deeper pullback in the coming days/weeks?” he inquire On X.

“We are waiting for the United States to wake up and see how it starts the week.”

Breakdown of BTC price recovery prospects

This may be the start of what is traditionally considered the best six months of the year for stocks, but cryptocurrencies are in no mood to follow suit.

Bitcoin actually fell 2% in November, making matters worse for the bulls who were still reeling from their worst October performance since 2018.

Data from Queen Glass It shows how high the risks are – average November gains since 2013 have been more than 40%.

Prediction markets confirm the current low sentiment among cryptocurrency market participants. Polymarket BTC/USD has only a 33% chance of ending the month above $120,000, with $115,000 at 60%.

the Fear and Greed Index in CryptocurrenciesMeanwhile, it remains in the “fear” zone, but it does not reflect Bitcoin’s recent drop to $107,000.

Last week, when this level reappeared, research platform Santiment noted that it was key when it came to investors’ price expectations.

“Bitcoin’s price drop to $107,000 on Thursday has led to a significant amount of Bitcoin price forecasts falling below $100,000.” Written on X At the time, along with a chart comparing price calls below $100,000 and those above $150,000.

“Markets are moving against public expectations, so a comfortable rally is likely while FUD peaks as it does now.”

Easing the trade war versus a hawkish Fed

Good news takes precedence for stocks this week, as optimism over the US-China trade deal outweighs the risk of a conflict of interest.

S&P 500 futures opened slightly higher as markets digested lower tariffs and the removal of restrictions on Chinese rare earths and auto chips.

“This is the largest de-escalation to date,” trade source The Kobeissi Letter wrote in an article. reaction For plans over the weekend.

Despite concerns about US military intervention in both Venezuela and Nigeria, trading remains at the top of the list for risk asset investors. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies were only feeling nervous as the new week began.

The collapse in Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks did not help the situation. Last week, macro analyst Jordi Visser said that only big tech stocks are now providing some form of support to Bitcoin’s price movement.

“Bitcoin moves with technology stocks. It is linked to liquidity and ‘risk appetite,’” he wrote in an article. Blog post.

“For years, you could predict Bitcoin’s direction by watching the Nasdaq. That correlation has broken down recently and since December of 2024. Completely.”

In the coming days, 20% of the profits of companies listed on the S&P 500 index, including AMD and Palantir, are scheduled.

The ongoing US government shutdown means that precious inflation data will be available, with only private sector payrolls being affected.

In the background, there is increasing uncertainty about US economic policy. The Fed is taking an increasingly hawkish stance, even though additional interest rate cuts in 2025 are now not guaranteed.

Data from CME group Feedwatch tool It puts the odds of a cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting in December at 63%.

Commenting on this, trading firm Mosaic Asset said the Fed’s planned pause on quantitative tightening (QT) could provide a bullish counterweight.

“This has shrunk the Fed’s balance sheet from a peak of about $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.5 trillion now,” he wrote in the latest edition of his regular newsletter.Market mosaic“.

“Ending the QT period removes a major source of liquidity drain on financial markets.”

Reversing the trend of institutional supply depletion

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is back in the spotlight this week, as Bitcoin’s weak price performance weighs against stocks and gold.

Data from a UK based investment firm Persian investors Shows three consecutive days of net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through October 31.

The largest, BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), contributed more than half a billion dollars of the total.

Now, these inflows are causing concern as institutional demand fails to keep up with the daily increase in Bitcoin supply.

This trend has been noticed by Charles Edwards, founder of crypto-quantitative digital asset fund Capriole Investments.

“For the first time in 7 months, institutional net buying has fallen below daily supply from mines,” he commented alongside Capriole’s numbers on Monday.

Edwards described the results as “not good,” stressing that the total includes ETFs.

The last time institutional appetite failed to match newly mined supply was before BTC/USD hit its current local lows of around $75,000 in early April.

However, as Cointelegraph reported, Visser sees the progress of ETFs as part of Bitcoin’s long-term maturity as a total asset class.

“For years, the liquidity simply wasn’t there. Try selling $100 million of Bitcoin in 2015. It will cause the price to collapse. Try selling $1 billion in 2019. Same problem. The market couldn’t handle it.”

“But now? ETFs are offering institutional offerings. Major corporations are holding bitcoin on their balance sheets. Sovereign wealth funds are participating. The market has finally matured to the point where early holders can exit significant positions without causing chaos.”

Retail Bitcoin investors in ‘retreat’

Retail Bitcoin investors have sought refuge since the price fell nearly 20% from all-time highs in October.

Related to: Bitcoin May Drop 70% Ahead of $1 Million, MEXC’s ‘White Whale’ Apology: Hodler’s Digest, October 26-November 1

This is evidenced by a decline in active Bitcoin addresses, as reported in research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

“At the beginning of November 2024, the number of active addresses was around 1.18 million, while as of October 30, 2025, their number was 872,000, representing a 26.1% decrease,” contributor Carmelo Aleman wrote in one of his articles.Fast take“Blog posts over the weekend.

Aleman directly linked the recent price action, which sparked several mass liquidation events, to the retail sector “retreat.”

“The absence of retail investors limits visible network activity and delays the natural end of the market cycle,” he concluded.

“Retail selling provides the emotional push and liquidity for strong hands to exit positions profitably, and without it, cycles extend longer than usual.”

Fellow contributor Pelin Ai went further, noting that the Bitcoin network had deviated significantly from the price. She said Metcalf’s Law – which measures a fair price relative to network spread – supports this theory.

“When the NVM ratio rises sharply above 1, and especially above 2, the price historically tends to decline afterward,” Quicktake posted. He explained.

“The current value of 2.97 indicates that the network valuation is well above the historical average, indicating that Bitcoin is currently trading in overvalued territory relative to its network size.”

Ai suggested that Bitcoin’s price could fall to as low as $98,500 next, as a result of Metcalfe-based “saturation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.