Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope

Josh Olswich, the encryption analyst, expects Bitcoin to bear a possibility market, over the next six weeks before the circumstances improve to the fourth quarter, warning of the September season, alleviating momentum signals, and discusses the dynamics of mixed ETF flow from patience instead of benefiting from them. He said in a video on August 18, adding that the path to the cleansing head is explicitly on a handful of technical and flowing operators instead of one catalyst.

The battle lines are drawn for Bitcoin

Olzwich Anchor Road map in the short term in flow and seasonal flows. He wants “nothing – just a flat line on (ETF) flowing for the next two weeks and then four worse,” on the pretext that re -appointment “will put us in Q4”. While he pointed out, “We had $ 550 million a week, which is very good for any traded investment funds … still is a strong number … not zero,” he nevertheless varied with weekly meters earlier and much larger and note that the companies of the companies of the companies – “many sellers still if the price does not go anywhere” – has slowed down the pace of peak. The implicit meaning is not a public drop, but “time, and not the price”: either a sharp withdrawal in the names that ran or “side dead for six weeks”.

On the Bitcoin chart, Olszewicz reduces the discussion on a well -defined line in the sand and a small range of Ichimoku operators and direction. “Since July … 121 – 122,000 dollars, the imaginary line is still in the sand … a daily closure of this level, I am good with the top,” adding, “above $ 120,000 is easy. I love $ 150,000.” Until that break, he sees “cut” dominating.

The “first signs of the problem” is determined as “a closing in the daily cloud and/or the conclusion without the 20-week moving average-the yellow line there at $ 104,000”, and emphasizes the corrupt time: “If it is closed under the cloud in September, I am slightly less worried than if we have in October.” A decisive slip late than Q3 in Q4 will be more important. “If we close less than 100 thousand dollars in October, I am closer to this course camp, and beware,” warned, explaining, “We are far from that … there is nothing here at all-it is without momentum.”

Its favorite confirmation system tends to the Ichimoku suite and a separate cloud test that follows it on the BTC daily scheme. This model “The April Move” early; Currently, he reads “well”, but he determines the exact sequence that would turn his bias: “You first need the dantper TK It is a decision tree, and not predicting: “It is accurate … if this is, then.”

Macro timing can add friction in the period. It refers to the emergence of Jackson Hall on Friday by the President of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell as a clear “catalyst” in the short term, indicating the tone of sincerity-“Do not cut, you need more data, you need more time”-

He also thought that “Trump might announce his alternative before he spoke Powell … only to steal thunder”, and put him as a racist risk factor for the origins of risk, not a basic issue. However, the bigger background – the supply of global money and its debts – raises the structural winds of rare assets, in his opinion: “This will provide a nice pillow … because it continues to print money everywhere worldwide.”

Waiting for the fourth quarter season

Olszewicz emphasizes that this does not prevent the upward trend, but it undermines the possibility of continued orientation in the very short term. On the contrary, the ETHEREUM mode is called “shocking … for the long side”, although ETH only printed a record week in the ETF-a clear paradox that it solves by distinguishing between one week of the “continuous flow stream” that supports trends. Comb the comparison is for Bitcoin because the widespread display of encryption risk is difficult to maintain whether the location of the ETH and the excessive technician in its arrest.

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Within the Bitcoin Special Market Temple, Olszewicz mixes tactical caution with a long -term thesis that is still many bicycle investors. He knows that “August was difficult” until now, but it notices the historical scarcity of “six consecutive months” of green closure, and it is repeated that merchants looking for “high -resolution moves” with the financial leverage must prefer to wait for signs instead of exposure to power “nothing”.

On the contrary, for the long horizon holders, the Power Law Corridor is cited as a reason to avoid the second guess unless the market fails in a bad way in the fourth quarter: “If you think there is an opportunity … 30-50 % to already try to move an equivalent across the point of the mid-power law … it may be worth the distress as saying, so well, I explain that to me.”

This framework also explains his tolerance in a deeper re -test without giving up the larger upward trend. It is repeated that there is a “large space) for anger and decline”, as the average average works for 20 weeks and the daily cloud as objective drawers. The cloud break in September is a warning. The cloud break in October or the closure of October will be less than $ 100,000 a stronger statement about the health of the course. Until then, it expects a “carrying levels” market, with $ 121,000 – 122,000 dollars as an operator that would convert the “dead momentum” into a real motive.

For bitcoin traders, ready -made meals are backup and non -emotional. There is no “magic preparation” this week, and the non -friendly statistical month of September. There is the bullish path to the fourth quarter, but it must be gained: Meanwhile, the olszwaz foundation line is either “nothing” or a opportunistic decline that resets the feverish pockets in the market. The emergency situations that flip this text program are clear enough to write after that: keep the cloud, defend 20 weeks about $ 104,000, and closes decisively from 121,000 to 122,000 dollars. Only then, Bitcoin can target $ 150,000. “

At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 115,069.

Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com