Bitcoin (BTC) jumped back above $110,000 on Monday, erasing part of last week’s decline even as U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs recorded the second-largest weekly net outflows ever ($1.2 billion).
The quick recovery, from lows near $103,700, has traders wondering if the market has just completed a “controlled deleveraging” and is now preparing for the next rally. Ethereum has reclaimed $4,000 alongside the cryptocurrency’s broader green shoots, supported by quiet trade war headlines and rising odds of additional Fed rate cuts.
In the short term, BTC is trying to hold the support range between $107,000 and $110,000. A clean break and hold above $112,000-$115,500 would strengthen the bullish case and set sights on $120,000-$123,000.
BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Institutions are still bullish. Rare BTC-Gold signals flashing “at the bottom”
Despite the outflows, institutional conviction appears resilient. new Scan Coinbase It found that 67% of institutions are bullish on Bitcoin over the next three to six months, citing improved liquidity, strong ETF infrastructure and stablecoin usage near record levels.
Macro tailwinds are supportive, with markets now pricing in further easing by the Fed, a trend that has historically redirected capital from cash and money market funds toward risky assets.
Cross-chain and cross-asset signals add weight. CryptoQuant’s Joao Widson noted rare bottom readings in the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio oscillator, levels that preceded a previously strong recovery.
Separately, JPMorgan’s framework values Bitcoin materially higher against gold, and maps to a potential value of $165,000 by 2025 if the relationship returns to normal.
Short-term bearer MVRV Bollinger signals are also in the “oversold” zone, seen earlier at $49,000 and $74,000 before the subsequent highs, supporting the idea that the recent weakness was an accumulation phase, not a top.
Bitcoin (BTC) levels, risks and the path to a new high
Technically, Bitcoin Bulls want to defend $107,000-$110,000 and turn $112,000-$115,500 into support. Above that, momentum traders are eyeing between $120,000 and $123,000 and the previous ATH area near $126,000.
Funding and open interest have slowed, reducing the risk of another series of forced liquidations. Regardless, skeptics point to rising wedge overhangs and headline risks (trade tensions, data shocks), while gold’s record rise fuels the “digital gold vs gold” debate.
A bounce above $110,000, despite large ETF redemptions, indicates a strong reduction in buying and improved liquidity. If macro conditions cooperate and BTC can reclaim the mid-$110,000s on significant volume, the market could move from a “reset” to a re-accumulation, laying the foundation for a new bull leg in late 2025.
Cover image from ChatGPT and BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
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