Bitcoin is sitting on the first real support of the session, and the market is now at what cryptocurrency analyst Dom (@traderview2) calls a “crossroads.” His message is straightforward: If Bitcoin cannot stabilize and quickly recover key levels, the structure that has defined this entire path is breaking for the first time – and it is heading towards the downside.
“This is the last chance for Bitcoin to maintain this level and rise,” he said in a live analysis. flow “If Bitcoin can’t stabilize here over the next week or two, I think this price will collapse. I think we’ll see the mid-to-low $90,000s again.”
Final stand for the Bitcoin Stairs Rally
The base case for Dom is not a classic crypto winter. A loss of 80% is not expected. Instead, he warns that the next few days will decide whether Bitcoin is able to defend the “staircase” structure that has held up throughout the cycle. If that collapses, he expects a controlled but sustained bounce – not a collapse, but not a continuation either.
“I don’t think we’re going to get into a year-and-a-half bear market like we always have,” he said. “Those things are a thing of the past…unless the world enters a terrible recession like the Great Depression.”
The main line he is monitoring for Bitcoin is the area between roughly $111,000 and $114,000, which he noted in the context of reclaimed resistance and VWAP levels. “If that doesn’t recover in a quick time frame, I think we need to prepare for a bigger collapse which would be less than $100,000,” he said. His first target on the breakout is roughly $98,500, which is in line with what he called the 12-month VWAP — “our bull market range for the entire cycle.”
Below, he looks at whether buyers are getting involved aggressively or not at all. That reaction, he says, will decide whether $95,000 is a local wipeout and reset, or the start of something worse.
The reason he considers this a “do or die” moment is that, unlike previous stages of the cycle, Bitcoin no longer immediately bounces off support. Throughout the advance, Dom says, Bitcoin followed one clean pattern: break a key resistance, retest it once, and then explode higher. “Anytime we removed resistance, we viewed it as support,” he said. “It was a perfect pattern throughout the entire course.”
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This behavior has now changed. After the October 10 liquidation event and the short strength surrounding the Fed decision and China headlines, Bitcoin stalled. It broke above resistance, then stayed there for “four or five months,” failed to expand, and is now losing momentum at the same level that buyers had previously defended so persistently.
“No one thinks this is an opponent,” he said. “We’ve had a lot of bounce at the same price and buyers aren’t interested. What would interest them? Lower prices make sense.”
This is classic auction theory for him. In strong uptrends, the first retest of the key level is bought immediately because participants see it as cheap. Now, he says, the flow of the system shows hesitation, not urgency. This is how tops actually form in cryptocurrencies: not a single dramatic candle, but buyers refusing to defend the same level for the fifth time.
He also directly pointed to the shallow liquidity in major spot books. “These order books are empty…no one is saving us here,” he said on Coinbase. He only described weak interest on passive bids approaching $100,000 — “that’s only 170 bitcoins. That’s not really a lot” — and intense active selling pressure on Binance. “People are actively selling in the market… and we don’t have anyone on the other side to absorb that pressure.” His conclusion: This is exactly the setup that precedes rapid air moves down if the key level is broken.
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This fragility is not hypothetical. Dom says the October 10 crash really demonstrated how dependent cryptocurrencies are on a few market makers. “We basically went through an empty order book,” he said. “It proves how fragile cryptocurrencies really are… If their risk systems said, ‘Hey, we’re not going to quote this,’ the markets would collapse like they did.”
No 80% crash this time
However, Dom is not in the “the cycle is over forever” camp. He believes that the market has changed structurally and that most traders are still using the 2021 mental model in the 2025 market.
He argues that Bitcoin is now an institutional instrument, rather than a purely speculative retail instrument. “This here has been kind of a very steady growth,” he said. “The difference… is that this was actually driven by institutions. I think institutions were the main driver behind this cycle… ETFs took off and we just climbed our way to the top.”
This slow and controlled progress is why he rejects the idea that Bitcoin will repeat the classic -80% pullback after reaching the top. The new influx is called “parked money” — capital from ETFs, corporate treasuries, allocators, “financial advisors, and 401k funds” that is not actively triggering panic selling with every 5% move. “They don’t call you every other day and say, ‘Oh, you know, the stock price is down 5%,’” he said. Let’s sell it.”
He also noted that this cycle barely doubled the old all-time high instead of trending vertically, and even recorded new highs before the halving. In his view, if the upside is silent and institutionalized, the downside is likely to be silent and institutionalized.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $110,280.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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