President Donald Trump He was not specific about how much he would like to see Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations.
He has spoken about his efforts to extend his first term Abraham Accords — the project that formalized trade and diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab countries — as key to his plan to achieve long-term stability in the Middle East with a fragile ceasefire between the two parties. Israel and Hamas in Gaza He continues to endure.
The normalization campaign is expected to be at the top of the agenda when Trump hosts the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman On Tuesday for talks during A splendid visit to the White House.
“I hope that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords very soon,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday on his way to Florida for the weekend.
However, Trump’s optimism that a US-brokered agreement could be reached soon has been weakened by more sober internal assessments. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to sign the agreements anytime soon, but there is cautious optimism that an agreement could be reached by the end of Trump’s second term, according to three administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The first Trump administration and its successor, The Biden administration tried to persuade Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords. But these hopes were dashed first by opposition from the crown prince’s father, King Salman, during Trump’s first term, and then by Prince Mohammed himself after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks against Israel that sparked the Gaza war.
Although the crown prince, widely referred to as MBS, has indicated that he may be more flexible than his father on the matter, a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state remains a condition and is something Israel strongly opposes.
Trump may try to convince Prince Mohammed of this American leader 20-point Gaza peace plan represents such a path. However, this threatens to provoke Israelis’ anger and cooperation in these efforts, especially if the Republican president promises a detailed timeline of standards that must be met.
One official said the best outcome of this week’s talks, from the U.S. perspective, might be for the Saudis to recognize the Trump plan as a starting point for eventual Palestinian statehood and publicly agree to consider joining the agreements.
The Saudis want a path towards establishing a Palestinian state
Trump predicted in recent weeks that once Saudi Arabia signs the agreements, “everyone will join” in the Arab world. He confirmed that the Saudis would join, given the continued ceasefire in Gaza.
“We have a lot of people now joining the Abraham Accords, and we hope we will too You will get to Saudi Arabia “Very soon,” Trump said in a speech to business leaders this month in which Princess Reema Bandar Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington, was a special guest. “I’m not applying pressure,” Trump jokingly assured the diplomat.
Trump says his optimism is based on what he sees as a seismic shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, which he believes has created an opportunity for the region’s leaders to achieve lasting peace.
Iran, a common enemy of the Saudis and Israelis, has seen its countless proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen diminished after two years of conflict in the Middle East, and Tehran’s nuclear program has been set back by the war. US strikes in June. Trump says these factors helped pave the way for Saudi Arabia and Israel to reach an agreement.
However, public trust in Trump remains difficult to reconcile with the Saudi position that any normalization agreement first requires establishing a clear path to Palestinian statehood.
However, the visit could represent an opportunity for Trump to ease the crown prince toward his ultimate goal, especially if Trump can show his acceptance of the need to create a Palestinian state.
John Hanna, who served as national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, said: “Trump’s show of openness and even support for a Palestinian state could go a long way in his hopes of pushing Mohammed bin Salman toward normalization.”
But Trump certainly faces some headwinds in convincing Prince Mohammed to join, at least in the near term.
The painful images of the war between Israel and Hamas are still fresh, and rebuilding the devastated lands will take a years-long effort.
Israel and Hamas are making slow progress in returning the remains of the last hostages in Gaza. But several critical decision points looming on the horizon — such as disarming Hamas, establishing international security forces in the Strip, and establishing an alternative governance structure for post-Hamas Gaza — could undermine the delicate truce if things go sideways.
continuous Violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians In the West Bank, regional mistrust towards Israel has increased.
“As long as the scenes on Saudi television are scenes of devastation and misery in Gaza, I think it will be very difficult for Mohammed bin Salman to move in this direction,” said Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish think tank in Washington. “However, I also believe there are things the Saudis can do, as they have done in the past, to advance the normalization process across the region.”
A fighter jet deal seemed unlikely during the visit
The Crown Prince is expected to come to the White House with a wish list that includes receiving official assurances from Trump specifying the scope of American military protection for the Kingdom, and an agreement to purchase American-made F-35 fighter aircraft, which is one of the most advanced aircraft in the world.
But administration officials said that while the White House was finalizing preparations for the visit, it seemed unlikely that Trump would be ready to sign a deal for the fighter jets. But they noted that Trump has a track record of unpredictability and could decide to approve the sales if the crown prince convinces him one way or another.
The officials said the administration remains cautious about hurting Israel’s “qualitative military advantage” over its neighbors, especially at a time when Trump is counting on Israeli support for the success of his Gaza peace plan.
Another long-standing concern, which has also derailed a potential similar sale to the UAE, is that F-35 technology could be stolen or somehow transferred to China, which has close ties to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Hannah, a former Cheney aide, who is now a senior fellow at the US Jewish Institute for National Security, said the price of normalization paid by the crown prince only rose in the wake of Gaza. But Hanna said it would be unwise for Trump to give up his influence.
“I think it would be foolish not to insist that the eventual integration of these aircraft into the Saudi battle system be linked to normalization and a more fundamental and lasting shift in Saudi-Israeli relations and the regional security landscape,” Hanna said.
The post A key negotiation for Trump, MBS during Saudi visit to Washington: future Palestinian statehood first appeared on Investorempires.com.
